Chinese Space Science and Technology ›› 2018, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (4): 76-83.doi: 10.16708/j.cnki.1000-758X.2018.0047

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Satellitelife prediction method anditsapplication by multiple mechanisms

ZHAO Haitao, YANG Hui, XIONG Xiao   

  1. Beijing Institute of Space craft System Engineering, Beijing 100094, China
  • Received:2017-04-28 Revised:2017-12-20 Accepted:2018-05-15 Online:2018-08-25 Published:2018-06-07

Abstract: Based on the realistic requirement of satellite life prediction and the deficienciesin previous methods,anewlifeprediction methodconsidering multiple mechanisms wasproposed.The life characteristics of satellite products and the causes for the end of satellite life were analyzed. Considering random failure, a life prediction model updated with satellite operating timeand system components was proposed, and the method solving multi-stage distribution parameters wasgiven. Based on this, the random failure, degradationand exhaustion were considered synthetically, and a new life prediction method was built. A case study shows that the new method can be used to get the more depend able results, which are very important for the constellation maintenance strategy.

Key words: satellite, constellation, remaining life, life prediction, Monte-Carlo simulation, competitivefailure