›› 2016, Vol. 36 ›› Issue (4): 1-.doi: 10.16708/j.cnki.1000-758X.2016.0046

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Modeling and analysis on the long-term evolution of the space debris cloud

ZHANG  Bin-Bin, WANG  Zhao-Kui, ZHANG  Yu-Lin   

  1. 1.College o fAerospace Science and Engineering,National University of Defense Technology, Changsha410073,China
    2.School of Aerospace Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing100084,China
  • Received:2016-03-31 Revised:2016-07-01 Online:2016-08-25 Published:2016-06-30

Abstract: Aspacedebriscloudconsistsofnumerousbreakupfragmentswhichareoriginatedfromaninstinctspaceobject.Asthebreakupfragmentsareinaconcentrateddistribution,thosespacecraftintheneighborhoodofthebreakupobjectswillfaceaseriousthreatofcollision.Inordertoevaluatethelongtermevolutionofspacedebris,thepropagationofspacedebriscloudforashorttermperiodwasanalyzednumerically.Basedonthestabledistributioncharacteristicofthedebriscloud,fragmentsweredividedintoseveralgroupsaccordingtotheirorbitalheightsandareamassratios.Thelongtermdistributionundertheperturbationofatmospheredragwasdescribedbyananalyticevolutionmodel.Comparing〖JP2〗withallthefragmentspropagatingindividually,theanalyticmodelwasmoreefficientandlesstimeconsuming.Theevolutionofabreakupdebriscloudconsists1780breakupfragments,andwasobtairedforthenextfiftyyears.Resultsshowthatthepeakspatialdensityofthedebriscloudisaroundtheheightofthebreakupobjectandwillspreadintoabroaderheightintervalcontinuously,andthefragmentsinthelowerheightintervalwillfirstlyincreaseandthendecreaseundertheperturbationofairdrag.

Key words: spacedebriscloud, spatialdensity, breakupmodel, debrisdistribution, evolutionmodel