›› 2012, Vol. 32 ›› Issue (1): 60-65.doi: 10.3780/j.issn.1000-758X.2012.01.009

• 技术交流 • 上一篇    下一篇

考虑人及组织因素的航天工程项目风险分析模型

 孟华, 麦强, 安实   

  1. (哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,哈尔滨150001)
  • 收稿日期:2011-05-05 修回日期:2012-02-25 出版日期:2012-02-25 发布日期:2012-02-25
  • 作者简介:孟 华 1969年生,2003年获哈尔滨工业大学管理科学与工程专业硕士学位,现为在读博士研究生。主要研究方向为航天型号项目管理。
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金(70903017),高等学校博士点基金(20092302120012),黑龙江省自然科学基金(QC2010087)资助项目

Risk Analysis Model of Aerospace Engineering Project Incorporating Human and Organization Factors

MENG  Hua, MAI  Qiang, AN  Shi   

  1. (School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin 150001)
  • Received:2011-05-05 Revised:2012-02-25 Online:2012-02-25 Published:2012-02-25

摘要: 针对人及组织因素是造成航天工程项目风险的重要原因,在揭示了人及组织因素产生航天工程项目风险的机理基础上,构建了考虑人及组织因素的航天工程项目风险分析模型。模型首先评价人及组织因素对航天工程元器件建造工作质量的影响,接着测度工作质量与不同缺陷类型之间的一致性概率,并应用Poisson分布计算缺陷严重性,最后根据贝叶斯定理对元器件先验失效率进行修正,通过一个经过数据处理的航天工程项目对所构建的模型和方法进行了验证。

关键词: 风险分析, 人及组织因素, 贝叶斯定理, 航天工程项目

Abstract: The mechanism of project risk caused by human and organization factors was revealed, and a model of risk analysis for aerospace engineering project incorporating the human and organization factors based on the mechanism was proposed. Based on the model, the quality of spacecraft component manufacturing considering the human and organization factors was evaluated, and then the consistency probability between the operational task quality  and the different types of defect was assessed, and the defect severity was calculated according to Poisson distribution. Finally, the prior default rate of component was updated based on Bayesian theorem. The model framework was validated by an aerospace engineering project with modified data.

Key words: Risk analysis, Human and organization factors, Bayesian theorem, Aerospace engineering project